How does Peak Goals calculate progress, confidence and forecast?

Progress is (actual − starting value) / (target − starting value); if the target is below the starting value, lower counts as better. Milestone goals count weighted milestones. The forecast projects the trend of the latest values to the deadline, or, without history, the pace since the start. Confidence follows from the forecast, blockers, overdue milestones and broken assumptions, and is averaged with your own assessment. Every number says what it is based on; “Why?” on the goal page shows the reasons.